Scaling up national adaptive capacities for climate change-driven natural hazards through strengthening monitoring and early warning systems

Armenia is increasingly exposed to climate-driven hazards, including droughts, floods, hailstorms, landslides, and heatwaves, which have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, threatening lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Despite escalating risks, the country's early warning and climate information systems remain fragmented, with limited forecasting accuracy and accessibility, constraining its ability to anticipate and manage climate-related emergencies.

The project seeks to establish a people-centered Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) for Armenia and represents Armenia's first single-country adaptation initiative within the GCF portfolio. Aligned with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Early Warnings for All initiative and the Global Framework for Climate Services, the project aims to directly benefit approximately 1.07 million people and enable a shift from reactive disaster response to anticipatory, risk-informed action.

Structured around three components, the project will modernize meteorological and hydrological observation and forecasting systems; strengthen early warning dissemination through multi-channel alerting and risk communication; and develop innovative resilience financing mechanisms, including forecast-based financing and climate micro-insurance, to sustain early action and encourage private sector engagement.

Inclusive, multi-channel warnings will reach approximately 300,000 vulnerable individuals affected by age, disability, or rural isolation, potentially reducing post-disaster recovery burdens on women and caregivers by 20 to 30 per cent.  The project will enable Armenia to transition from a fragmented system toward a self-sustaining, nationally owned climate information and early warning architecture.